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DN1 Statto Prediction!

DN1 Statto Prediction!

Chris Ward1 Sep 2015 - 11:36
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We use statistics from 28 years of league rugby to create a guesstimation of where Novos will finish 2016 in Durham/Northumberland 1!

Firstly let’s take a look at a total breakdown of Novos since the inception of league rugby in 1987.

DivisionMatchesWinsDrawsDefeatsFAWin %Points
North East 1642143961788032.812546
North East 222111102492685023
Durham/North 11955271363114559826.66667209
Durham/North 22171253894491358657.60369309
Durham/North 322210154220895.4545542
TOTAL5202301527590131054044.23077629

Novos started league rugby life in the regional North East leagues, but in 1995, after 8 seasons, were relegated into the Durham and Northumberland Leagues and have never threatened to return!
If we were to use Novos’ overall win percentage after 28 years of league rugby, we would get around 44%. If we were to then compare that win percentage against the last five seasons of DN1 rugby we would get an average position of: 9th.
However, Novos have fared rather poorly after 9 different seasons in Durham/Northumberland 1, with a lowly win percentage of around 27%. Using the same format as before, would see Novos narrowly avoiding relegation, in 12th place.

Using my incredibly flawed logic 9+12= 21. 21 / 2 = 10.5.
Therefore, my statistics estimate a 10th-11th place finish for Novos!
For those even vaguely interested (I guess none!) here is Novos full league placings from 9 seasons in Durham/Northumberland 1. Can Novos ever beat the 5th place finish set in 1999? It all starts again this Saturday, as Novos take on Darlington at Sutherland Park 15:00 K.O.

SeasonDivisonPositionGamesWonDrewLostFAPoints
1995-96Durham/North 171160519627112
1996-97Durham/North 181840142543658
1998-99Durham/North 151881930430417
1999-00Durham/North 191821151364475
2009-10Durham/North 1926811741875617
2010-11Durham/North 11026811750081143
2011-12Durham/North 114263122266101416
2013-14Durham/North 11226422048982336
2014-15Durham/North 11026901755180755

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